This website is a clone of the Fifth National Climate Assessment, as it was originally published by the U.S. Global Change Research Program at the URL nca2023.globalchange.gov. Its content has not been altered from the original in any way; however, this is not an official U.S. government website.
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    • About This Report
    • Guide to the Report
    • Report Credits
    • Companion Podcast
    • Additional Resources
    • About this Report
    • Guide to this Report
    • OVERVIEW
    • Physical Science
    • 2. Climate Trends
    • 3. Earth Systems Processes
    • National Topics
    • 4. Water
    • 5. Energy
    • 6. Land
    • 7. Forests
    • 8. Ecosystems
    • 9. Coasts
    • 10. Oceans
    • 11. Agriculture
    • 12. Built Environment
    • 13. Transportation
    • 14. Air Quality
    • 15. Human Health
    • 16. Indigenous Peoples
    • 17. International
    • 18. Complex Systems
    • 19. Economics
    • 20. Social Systems and Justice
    • Regions
    • 21. Northeast
    • 22. Southeast
    • 23. US Caribbean
    • 24. Midwest
    • 25. Northern Great Plains
    • 26. Southern Great Plains
    • 27. Northwest
    • 28. Southwest
    • 29. Alaska
    • 30. Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific Islands
    • Responses
    • 31. Adaptation
    • 32. Mitigation
    • Focus On
    • F1. Compound Events
    • F2. Western Wildfires
    • F3. COVID-19 and Climate Change
    • F4. Risks to Supply Chains
    • F5. Blue Carbon
    • Appendices
    • A1. Process
    • A2. Information Quality
    • A3. Scenarios and Datasets
    • A4. Indicators
    • A5. Glossary

    • All Figures
    • All Key Messages
    • View All Report Downloads
    • Download Report-in-Brief PDF
    • Download All Report Figures (.zip)
    • Order Printed Materials
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Fifth National Climate Assessment
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Chapter
Handout
FiguresSlides
Report DownloadsFull ReportPDF file icon--ZIP file icon-
OverviewPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file iconDownload PPT icon
Report in BriefPDF file icon----
Chapter DownloadsFront MatterPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
1: OverviewPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file iconDownload PPT icon
2: Climate TrendsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
3: Earth Systems ProcessesPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
4: WaterPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
5: Energy Supply, Delivery, and DemandPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
6: Land Cover and Land-Use ChangePDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
7: ForestsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
8: Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and BiodiversityPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
9: Coastal EffectsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
10: Ocean Ecosystems and Marine ResourcesPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
11: Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural CommunitiesPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
12: Built Environment, Urban Systems, and CitiesPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
13: TransportationPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
14: Air QualityPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
15: Human HealthPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
16: Tribes and Indigenous PeoplesPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
17: Climate Effects on US International InterestsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
18: Sector Interactions, Multiple Stressors, and Complex SystemsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
19: EconomicsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
20: Social Systems and JusticePDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
21: NortheastPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
22: SoutheastPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
23: US CaribbeanPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
24: MidwestPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
25: Northern Great PlainsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
26: Southern Great PlainsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
27: NorthwestPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
28: SouthwestPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
29: AlaskaPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
30: Hawai'i and US-Affiliated Pacific IslandsPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
31: AdaptationPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
32: MitigationPDF file iconPDF file iconPDF file iconZip file iconDownload PPT icon
Focus On
F1: Compound EventsPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
F2: Western WildfiresPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
F3: COVID-19 and Climate ChangePDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
F4: Risks to Supply ChainsPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
F5: Blue CarbonPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
Appendices
A1: Assessment Development ProcessPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
A2: Information QualityPDF file iconPDF file icon---
A3: Scenarios and DatasetsPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file icon-
A4: IndicatorsPDF file iconPDF file icon-Zip file iconDownload PPT icon
A5: GlossaryPDF file icon----
Public ReviewsPublic Comments and Author Responses for the Zero Order DraftPDF file icon----
Public Comments and Author Responses for the Third Order DraftPDF file icon----
Review by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and MedicinePDF file icon----
Narrative Response to the Academies ReviewPDF file icon----
Author Responses to National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and MedicinePDF file icon----
Other MaterialsInformation Quality GuidancePDF file icon----
Implementation of Federal Guidelines and Best Practices for Highly Influential Scientific Assessments in the Fifth National Climate AssessmentPDF file icon----
Information Quality Act CertificationPDF file icon----
Selection Process for Downscaled Climate Projection Data in the Fifth National Climate AssessmentPDF file icon----
ErrataErrataPDF file icon----

Likelihood

Virtually CertainVery LikelyLikelyAs Likely as NotUnlikelyVery UnikelyExceptionally Unlikely
99%–100%90%–100%66%–100%33%–66%0%–33%0%–10%0%–1%

Confidence Level

Very HighHighMediumLow
  • Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, well-documented and accepted methods, etc.)
  • High consensus
  • Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.)
  • Medium consensus
  • Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, methods emerging, etc.)
  • Competing schools of thought
  • Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.)
  • Disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

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